Fitch Solutions forecasts strong Moroccan economic recovery in 2025

Fitch Solutions anticipates a strong recovery of the Moroccan economy in 2025, forecasting a growth rate of 5%, driven by a combination of favorable factors, compared to 2.6% in 2024.

In its latest analysis, Fitch expresses optimism about Morocco’s economic outlook for 2025. This recovery is expected to be fueled by solid investments, an agricultural rebound after several difficult years, and a favorable macroeconomic environment.

These projections exceed the expectations of observers and the target set by the Moroccan government, indicating a strengthened potential for economic development.

According to Fitch Solutions, Morocco is expected to achieve 5% economic growth in 2025, significantly surpassing the 3.7% forecast by Focus Economics’ consensus and the government’s target of 4.6%.

The recovery would be supported by improved agricultural performance, increased investments, a favorable external environment, and expansionary fiscal policies.

The contribution of private consumption to GDP is also projected to improve, rising from 1.7 percentage points in 2024 to 2.6 percentage points in 2025.

This growth is expected to be driven by controlled inflation and an agricultural recovery after three years of unfavorable weather conditions.

The agricultural sector, which employs 27% of Morocco’s population, should benefit from a normal season, helping to stabilize food prices and reduce unemployment.

Fitch Solutions forecasts inflation to be limited to 1.7% in 2025, while public sector wage increases (+11.5% of personnel expenses) should support household purchasing power.

The study also highlights the role of investments in this recovery. The expected interest rate cuts by Bank Al Maghrib, with a reduction in the key rate to 2%, should lower borrowing costs and encourage private investment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased by 50.7% in the first nine months of 2024, particularly supporting strategic sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and renewable energy.

Morocco’s favorable environment and strategic location also attract foreign capital, while public investments are expected to grow by 8.6% in 2025, particularly in preparation for the 2030 World Cup.

The contribution of net exports to GDP is expected to turn positive again in 2025, reaching +0.6 percentage points, compared to -1.1 percentage points in 2024.

The acceleration of European growth (from 1.4% to 1.8%) will stimulate demand for Moroccan exports, while the agricultural recovery will limit imports of food products. Additionally, the organization of the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025 should lead to a rise in tourism flows, further boosting service exports.

Despite these optimistic prospects, Fitch Solutions notes some downside risks for 2025. An unfavorable agricultural season could slow growth, keep unemployment high, and exacerbate inflationary pressures. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East could lead to higher oil prices, impacting the Moroccan economy.

The post Fitch Solutions forecasts strong Moroccan economic recovery in 2025 appeared first on HESPRESS English – Morocco News.

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