Morocco’s central bank said it was cautiously optimistic about the country’s economic outlook, citing strong performance in export sectors and remittances, despite ongoing global uncertainties and domestic challenges such as water stress and drought.
The report projects a decline in global growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025, and further to 2.8% by 2026.
This trajectory points to a widespread expectation of economic deceleration on a global scale. Despite these challenges, Bank Al-Maghrib highlights positive developments for Morocco, particularly in export-driven sectors such as automotive manufacturing, and a continued strong performance in travel revenues and remittances from the Moroccan diaspora.
These factors are expected to contribute to a “solidification of Morocco’s medium-term growth,” even as the report cautions against the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policies under Trump and the looming threats of water stress and drought.
Domestically, 2024 has witnessed a notable recovery in Morocco’s external trade. Exports have risen by 5.5%, and imports by 4.6%. After a period of stagnation in 2023, the report forecasts that foreign trade will accelerate, with export growth projected to rise from 5.5% this year to 8.9% by 2026.
This growth is largely attributed to the continued strength of the automotive sector, with sales expected to reach 200 billion dirhams by 2026, alongside a rebound in phosphate exports, which are projected to reach 100 billion dirhams in the same period.
The report also highlights the robust performance of travel revenues and remittances. Travel income is expected to grow by 9.1% in 2024, reaching 128 billion dirhams by 2026. Meanwhile, remittances from Moroccans abroad are forecast to rise by 4.3% in 2024, with a steady annual growth rate of 3-3.5%, bringing total remittances close to 128 billion dirhams by 2026.
Despite external risks, particularly from geopolitical instability and oil price volatility, the Bank remains confident in Morocco’s economic resilience. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to increase gradually, reaching 400.2 billion dirhams by 2026, further bolstering the country’s economic stability.
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